Podcast 007 – Mats Larsson – Boris Johnson’s “10 Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution”

Mats Larsson author of “The Blind Guardians of Ignorance: Covid-19, Sustainability, and Our Vulnerable Future”

Show notes

Discussion with Mats Larsson regarding Boris Johnson’s “Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution for 250,000 jobs” announced on 2020-11-18:

Mats Larsson is author of: The Blind Guardians of Ignorance: Covid-19, Sustainability, and Our Vulnerable. A handbook for change leaders, young and old.

Mats’s Presentation:

Mats’s web links:

Timestamps:

  • 00:00 Intro – Music
  • 00:12 Intro – To episode Boris Johnson’s “Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution for 250,000 jobs”
  • 01:38 Need for a systems approach
  • 42:20 Reviewing each of the Ten Points
  • 52:25 Closing

Transcript:

00:01[Music]00:15welcome everybody00:16to this episode of the joshua sutherland00:19podcast00:20today’s guest is a returning guest mats00:23larsen00:24whose new book the blind guardians of00:27ignorance00:28is due out in a couple of weeks from the00:31recording time00:33and uh so it’s going to be out on the00:358th of december 2020s00:37and we had mats in here only00:41a month and a half ago in of00:45october 2020 and now we’re at the end of00:48november 202000:49and the reason we have mats here00:53is because over that short piece of time00:56there’s been various announcements00:58with regard to sustainability01:02policy at least in the uk government01:05with regard to01:07a one of the news is a proposed01:10ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel01:14cars01:15in the uk from 203001:18which is soon and uh sooner than many01:21people01:22were thinking so we thought it’d be good01:24to get matt’s here to01:26comment on that and if you’re watching01:29on the youtube video01:31there’s it there’ll be some presentation01:32slides to01:34help understand what it what is going on01:36so so matt how are you doing01:39i’m fine thank you i’m fine thank you01:42great01:42and um so so what what is happening01:45right now with regard to these01:47major announcements with uh01:49sustainability01:50in the world yes uh this is really01:54interesting because01:55i’ve been looking at these challenges01:57from a system perspective01:59and i’ve been arguing since02:042009 when i published my book02:07global energy transformation that02:09there’s a need02:10for a systems approach to02:14to this change02:17to sustainability and02:20now we have a great example here uh02:23the uk government has announced a02:2610-point02:27green plan uh in the past week uh02:30offering 12 billion pounds in02:33investments for02:34green technologies and this is02:37hopefully going to create 250 000 new02:40jobs02:42uh in the uk and but02:45the problem i see is that the plan is02:48not based on02:49a true understanding or vision02:52of what is going to be created and what02:56the new society the sustainable society02:59that we are02:59all expecting will emerge03:03um the question we need to ask ourselves03:05is to03:06is how we we’re going to build03:08sustainable systems03:10to make countries sustainable and03:12resilient03:13and what i like what i see03:16in this proposal is a lack of a systems03:20perspective and i’ll ex try to explain03:22giving a few examples from um03:26e-mobility and the ban on petrol and03:29diesel03:29um cars and uh03:33and compare it to the uh the suggestion03:37also03:38one of the points in the plan of um03:42spending uh a lot of money to promote03:46uh hydrogen economy as well03:49and there are also points in the plan to03:51to03:52invest in new nuclear technologies for03:55small-scale03:56nuclear plants and and new wind farms04:00um offshore so um so there are04:04a number of components there but they04:07i i i can’t see that they actually04:10harmonize04:11um the background is that04:15we need to understand the seriousness of04:18the situation and of the need to go fast04:22forward with these changes that are04:25necessary04:26and we can’t spend a lot of money into04:30that that’ll lead us into blind alleys04:33of of innovation and development04:36because one of the the04:41biggest challenges that we are likely to04:43face in the next few years04:44is that oil production is likely to go04:47into decline04:49and that’s going to create a situation04:54that few people at present expect04:56and it means that countries will not04:59have05:00enough oil to fuel transportation the05:02way we are used to now05:03and they will not have enough oil to use05:06as an industrial raw material05:08and this is a major threat basically05:12to our present economy and05:16we need to understand that at the05:18present rate of05:19of production all05:22conventional oil would be finished in 3005:24years from now05:26and the rate of new findings new05:29discoveries of oil05:30is very slow only a few percent05:34of the oil that’s produced is identified05:38in05:39in new discoveries so05:42but the problem is production can’t05:44continue at the present pace and what’s05:47expected to happen uh based on on the05:50analysis of of the geologists05:53is that um oil production05:56is likely to go into the decline already05:59uh a few few years from now so on the06:03surface of that06:05on the surface of that if if oil06:07production decline is a problem06:10banning the sale of diesel and petrol06:12cars06:13sounds like a good thing absolutely it’s06:16uh it’s going to move the um the06:20development forward and we need06:22uh this type of of um06:25some pressure uh on the development of06:29the new06:30uh systems but we also need to focus and06:33we need to look at the06:36look at this transformation from a06:38systems perspective06:40so i totally agree with you it is good06:42that they06:43that the government has decided to ban06:45but but they06:46need to understand also um what they06:49need to do in order to prepare06:51for a change over to06:55electric mobility and for for06:59cars as well as for for heavy07:01transportation07:03so yeah the system start now07:06is there a danger that we we get busy07:10doing things and we feel good because07:12they07:13they sound like they’re addressing the07:15problem but there’s no07:17overall plan and we don’t have a lot of07:20time and we waste a lot of time07:22resources doing things that ultimately07:25aren’t so useful07:26yes that’s the problem with the present07:30approach and this um07:33slightly random selection of new07:35technologies07:36to invest in seems to be um07:40mirrored in the new um in the 10-point07:42plan07:43as well and i’d like to um to07:46illustrate this first by by describing07:50the system challenges of07:52electromobility because this isn’t only07:54a matter of07:55of getting some more people more people07:59to buy08:00cars and installing um charging08:03infrastructure08:04it is a major system development that’s08:07needed in order to08:09to prepare the ground for the rollout of08:12of08:14electromobility systems on a large scale08:18um if we look at this perspective08:21of electromobility until 203008:26and 2040 when basically most cars in the08:30uk08:31will have to be fueled by electricity08:35um if um petrol and diesel cars08:38are banned by 2030.08:42it will mean that there will be a need08:46for08:46100 terawatt hours of power08:50for the for the 40 million cars08:53that are at present rolling on08:57british roads so and that’s equal to 2009:01nuclear reactors uh full-scale nuclear09:05reactors or more than that actually09:07or the similar amount in wind and solar09:10so there’s09:10a really really large need to expand09:15the power production basically09:19or and in combination with09:22saving power in09:26present applications where that is09:28possible09:29of course but but it’s a really really09:32large um volume of of new power that’s09:36that’s necessary to to make available09:39for for transportation and we need09:43uh one nuclear reactor09:46to build it it costs several billion09:49pounds09:50and wind power09:54of the same amount is09:57slightly less demanding in investments10:01but but is still a very large investment10:05and10:08as this as a power production would10:11increase10:12the demand for power distribution10:15in the through the um power grids10:19would probably have to have to double so10:23the capacity of the grids10:24will have to become twice as high as10:27they10:28as it is at present and10:31i rely on some some figures that that10:34have been calculated10:35uh for denmark and assume10:38uh or extrapolate that maybe10:42there would be a need for 60 billion10:45pounds in investments10:47for only to get 20 million electric cars10:51in the uk10:52to to be powered by electricity10:56and in addition to this there’s a need10:58for for the development of smart grids11:01and implement smart grid technology on11:04on a large scale which isn’t available11:07at present it’s it’s virtually a new11:10area of development that we’re11:11that needs to be opened up because11:14all elect owners of electric vehicles11:18can’t um plug in can’t11:22charge their vehicles at the same time11:24even if11:25all electric11:28car owners would plug in their vehicles11:30when they arrive home11:31at five o’clock or or six o’clock in11:34in the evening charging needs to be11:37managed11:37so that it is spread out uh over time um11:42and optimized so that11:45it’s it’s done during the night11:49when there’s a smaller demand for11:51electricity11:52for other purposes so so there’s a need11:54for smart power grids11:56and there’s also a need for electric11:58road11:59systems because all cars12:03cannot um charge in stationary charges12:08there’s a need for for um the12:10opportunity to charge12:11on the go when cars drive and that can12:14be done12:15through tracks in the roads12:18that need to be be um12:23installed basically in order to for for12:26for these systems to work but in order12:29to have12:30all cars electric and12:33there would be a need for for um perhaps12:361.5 times the number of cars12:40in terms of um charging posts and12:44many people parked the cars at um12:48at curbs in the cities and12:52they don’t have a parking space where12:54they could have access to uh12:56a charging post so so there there is12:59really likely to be a13:01big need for electric road systems as13:04well13:06so um just on that previous slide mats13:09the amount of infrastructure needed then13:12is vast13:13and um i was just looking up13:16how many existing nuclear reactors are13:18in the uk and operational ones is about13:211513:23and there are two more under13:24construction and about13:26six more which are in the planning stage13:29so if we’ve only got 15 currently and13:33you’re talking about13:3420 new ones being needed if all of the13:36energy was generated purely by nuclear13:40um it is a huge undertaking um13:44plus then there’s all this distribution13:46aspect yes13:47and i assume uh without having checked13:50it13:50it’s if you look at the the volume of13:53wind power that’s13:55produced every year it’s probably13:57smaller13:58uh in the uk compared to to the14:01volume of nuclear power14:06at least in sweden it the the volume14:09produced by nuclear14:10and power is twice as high as the volume14:14produced by14:15wind power so um so if14:19we say that we could instead invest a14:21lot in in14:22wind power or solar panels we need to14:25realize that14:26that those14:29systems would have to be expanded14:32several times compared to their present14:34size14:35yes in order to supply and and with14:38wind power of course we have the problem14:41also14:42uh that that14:45wind power is intermittent you only get14:48wind power when there’s14:49wind and and that means that14:52uh the the need for uh smart grids14:56that or and the need for storage of15:00of um electricity15:03increases so that you need so that15:06if you have a lot of of wind at times15:09when there are not so many15:11cars that are connected to the um15:15to the power grid for charging uh you15:17need to store15:18that uh that some of that power15:21in order to use it and and uh at later15:24times during the day because15:26that will it it’s not very likely that15:28countries will be able to15:30to build their15:33um power systems the way we they are15:36built15:37at present when there is no uh15:40management no control15:41of the use or of the uh or the15:45availability of uh of um15:50electricity and and a lot of power is15:53lost15:53basically uh during the day when at15:56times when when the demand is low15:59yeah yeah okay16:02so um i stopped you from moving on to16:05the next slide16:06yes in addition to to the technical16:09development needs16:10there’s a need for new companies and16:12business models16:14and this is this is to a large extent in16:18areas16:19where there are no systems and no no16:22business at present16:23so so that will have to be developed uh16:26from16:26from scratch and through experimentation16:31there’s a need for companies for example16:33that trade effect on grids16:35to make effect available from from16:38customers that have um a surplus16:43of effect or in their subscriptions16:48um to custom and sell that to16:51customers that that need to buy16:53additional effect16:54um and there’s a need for companies that16:57offer charging and build16:59infrastructure but it’s difficult at17:02present17:02and it will continue to be difficult to17:04to run17:05charging infrastructure with a profit17:08because it takes17:09a long time for for the charging of a17:11car17:12and even with a with a17:15supercharger it takes uh takes17:19quite a long time and the the amount of17:21money that17:22a car owner pays for charging is much17:25lower17:26than what the people pay for filling up17:28their petrol or diesel car17:30with um petroleum fuels17:34and so so it’s it’s the revenue from17:37charging17:38um decreases and the cost of17:41operating charging infrastructure17:45increases compared to the cost of17:47operating a filling station17:49and it becomes quite it’s difficult for17:53the17:54for utilities companies and other17:56operators of infrastructure17:58to to make a profit from it um so18:01this business development is difficult18:04to calculate and it’s difficult to set a18:06time frame18:07for for uh the perspective when18:10each when when there will be a18:13profitable business models for this18:17um in reality this is not very18:19surprising18:20and if we look at it from a historical18:23perspective18:24and it’s nothing new because government18:27financing has been18:28needed in most technology18:31developments in history i mean18:35governments financed the the18:37construction of railways18:38and and the building of other phone18:40networks and and18:42power grids in various ways and and the18:45us government18:46uh financed the development of space18:49technologies and18:51and uh i.t and18:54and internet technologies so it’s18:57nothing new18:58but but in those days governments did19:01not expect quick payback19:03um on their investment and19:07there is an expectation at present which19:10is unrealistic19:11and um unfounded um19:15i believe to that that these systems19:19will be that companies can build up19:21these systems19:22and rapidly make a profit from them19:25and it is a fact that in in the early19:28stages of technology development and19:31in the implementation of new systems19:33there are too few customers19:35to finance the very large investments19:37that are necessary19:39to build up the systems and that’s what19:42we find now19:43that the people who are19:46the few people who who buy electric cars19:49and use electric cars19:52they they can’t finance19:56the build up that will be needed over19:58the next few decades20:02so but it’s also pointless to deny the20:05complexity20:06and magnitude of this challenge20:09and of this transformation and20:12because the global pace of change if you20:15measure it um at present is 500 years20:20for electric cars there are 1.2 billion20:24cars20:25in in global vehicle fleets and there20:28are20:29about 7 million cars electric20:32and hybrid across the world which20:36makes up about um20:390.5 percent of of the global fleets20:43and it takes it would take at this pace20:46500 years20:47with a with an additional 2 million cars20:50every year20:51at present and20:54that are added to to fleets20:57and there’s no competitive system for20:59heavy transportation21:01it’s meaning so it’s meaningless to21:03measure or even to mention the pace21:05for that and to to just21:08put this figure in perspective 2.521:12million21:12cars every year is the number of of21:15cars that are bought in the uk every21:18year21:19uh and and that’s the number of of21:22electric21:22and and hybrid cars that are sold all21:25over the world21:26in a year at present so so there’s a21:29very big need to expand21:32the production of of um21:35electric cars and doesn’t need to21:40dismantle basically the production of21:44petrol and diesel cars over a period of21:47only21:4810 years and and also to redeploy21:52uh the re resources that are at present21:55um engaged in in calf reduction21:59and and maintenance of of of22:02uh petrol and diesel cars so and22:06the several points in the program do not22:09seem to22:10harmonize there are is um investments22:13planned22:14for for wind and for small-scale22:17nuclear energy projects but this22:22this focus on electric cars22:27is um22:30with this focus on electric cars there’s22:32a need to22:33very rapidly um expand22:37power production both probably from wind22:39and22:40from from nuclear power plants22:43and it’s it’s probably not enough22:47to focus on small scale nuclear22:50projects because there will be a very22:53very a big need to expand uh22:56power production on a large scale23:00so um that doesn’t seem to23:03to um harmonize and23:06if we look at another um23:10aspect of the plan and of the23:13investments in23:14hydrogen development they don’t seem to23:17make any sense at all23:19from this perspective hydrogen is a23:22visionary new technology23:23and hydrogen is is a medium for storing23:27electricity but hydrogen needs to be23:31produced23:32from for example oil23:36and oil is at present the primary23:40feedstock for for hydrogen production23:43but there are also very large drawbacks23:45of hydrogen23:46it’s energy inefficient and it demands23:50extreme amounts of power compared to23:53battery electric23:55applications so to illustrate this23:59if the british car fleet would be driven24:01using hydrogen it wouldn’t need 2024:05nuclear reactors it would need twice as24:07many24:0840 or even more than that and probably24:12uh oh so so24:15only for for the car fleet and the same24:18amount24:19the same number of um electricity24:22would be needed to in order to fuel24:26uh heavy transportation with trucks and24:28buses24:30so so that’s a really uh24:34that’s a system solution24:37that doesn’t seem to harmonize um24:41a hydrogen economy is in some ways24:44similar to the development of e-mobility24:46it’s oh but the situation for hydrogen24:50is that it’s at an earlier stage of24:52development compared to e-mobility24:56so there in order for hydrogen to arrive24:59at a similar point of of25:02development as e-mobility is now25:05and it will take perhaps a few decay25:09decades and so that will be very large25:13development needs over decay decades25:16until25:17the present situation that that we have25:20we are experiencing now with electric25:22cars25:22can be arrived at for for hydrogen25:26and with hydrogen there’s no25:28infrastructure in place25:30and as we know25:34we have all countries have power grids25:37we have large-scale power production and25:40we can use all these um25:44installations and and resources uh25:48in order to25:51to build on to expand very rapidly um25:56power production and and distribution25:59and25:59and we we have complete26:03work uh workforce that’s that’s very26:06well versed26:06in um hydrogen technology and no sorry26:10we have a workforce that’s very well26:12versed in26:13um electric uh technology26:17and and um26:20electricity in in various ways and and26:23the26:23in the the business of of utilities26:26companies26:27um but in in the area of hydrogen we26:31have26:31not very little um26:35of any uh infrastructure or26:38or very and very small production26:41resources compared to the ones that will26:43be needed26:44uh if we apply hydrogen on a large scale26:47in society26:49and we can’t simply take the26:52petroleum industry and have them26:55do this hydrogen work petroleum handling26:58is significantly different27:00and yes i i mean27:05with petroleum we of course have27:06refineries but27:08they are adapted to refining27:12oil and to refine oil into27:15its different fractions like uh petrol27:19diesel um27:20um uh and um27:24and the um and the other uh27:27other fractions like heavier fractions27:30uh aviation fuel yes27:33and asphalt production bitumen um27:39is a is a by-product or or one of the27:42products of27:42of bitumen that’s used for27:46the production of asphalt uh for27:49um road uh road coverage so27:52um but that that those27:55plants and and those resources cannot be27:58used for the28:00production of hydrogen we need to build28:02entirely new28:03uh production plants for and many new28:07production plants for28:08hydrogen and my some experts say that28:12that hydrogen is so energy intensive it28:16as i said it’s it requires twice as much28:18energy to to produce the hydrogen28:20to drive a car uh 10 kilometers28:23as it requires in terms of electricity28:27to28:29charge a battery for the same28:32to get the the car to drive the same28:34distance so um28:37and there’s very little in front28:40in terms of resources in the petroleum28:42industry28:43that can be used uh in the hydrogen28:46industry28:46as that there’s a need for to dismantle28:50resources and but and there’s a need to28:54if hydrogen will be used on a large28:56scale we need to you28:58to build very large new resources um29:02in in a number of areas and not29:05not least in order to distribute29:09um hydrogen and produce produce it on a29:12large scale29:14and also of course to to develop the um29:19the business models and and the29:20companies that29:22that can do this and to teach teach the29:25general public29:26to to use hydrogen and29:31persuade them to want to use hydrogen29:33instead of29:34instead of electricity29:38or as it is now um petrol and diesel29:44um so so um i’ve i’ve said some of this29:47already29:48but uh for immobility the building29:51blocks29:51are in place uh we have power production29:55we have29:55electricity grids we have um29:59bases for battery electric cars that30:02cost30:02uh anywhere from 20 000 pounds up to30:07much more 100 000 pounds and30:11we have although the cars are not30:15produced in the volumes that the30:18petrol and diesel cars are currently30:20produced we have the organizational30:22structures30:24which is also very important of30:26utilities companies30:28national grid operators we have30:30regulatory bodies for30:32for um for um30:37electricity the electricity sector and30:39we have30:40uh competent workforces at all levels30:43um so so we we can expand30:47this the e-mobility based on30:50resources that we already have but we30:52there’s a significant need30:54um that need we need to keep in mind to30:57build smart grids30:58business and develop business models and31:00companies in some areas31:02expand and expand charging31:05infrastructure31:07and also to to build the competence of31:09workforces31:10in in the new areas that need to be31:13added31:13so so there is a very very very large31:16need to31:18for new investment in in31:24e mobility mobility as well um31:27but the pace of transformation for in31:30this31:31sector is at present 500 years for cars31:34and heavy transportation has not started31:38smart grids development has not started31:41and all of these31:42these things will will require31:45significant resources and will take a31:47take a significant time31:49and there’s a need for business31:51development and rollout31:53that’s not been started either31:57and and as there’s a need32:00also to to speed up development and to32:03invest more32:04in the penetration of electric cars and32:07and32:07less expense in the development of less32:10expensive32:11car models and family cars and so on32:14that are not32:15at present um available on in32:19on the market but for for hydrogen32:22hydrogen is two or three decay decades32:25behind32:26battery electric or if we look at it32:28from the perspective of32:30of transformation perhaps 1 000 years32:32because32:33there is no no change going on and the32:37there are only a few thousand uh32:39hydrogen cars32:40in the in the global on the on the32:43global roads32:44and there is no large scale production32:46of hydrogen no distribution32:48infrastructure and cars at a very early32:51stage of development32:53and they’re not likely to catch up32:56in terms of price or or33:01facilities to catch up with battery33:04electric33:04cars because battery electric cars33:08are developed very rapidly at present33:11and are pulling pulling away from33:15um hydrogen fueled cars33:19no com and there’s virtually no33:21competent workforce available33:23in most areas because hydrogen is is at33:26present33:26used in industrial applications and for33:30for industrial purposes but um33:33not at all used as a fuel or for or as a33:38for the purposes that it is intended uh33:41in the future if we start a large-scale33:45um hydrogen economy33:48so the hydrogen cars at present cost33:51more than33:51fifty thousand pounds um and there’s a33:54need to33:55build systems from scratch and33:58and the energy efficiency of um34:01hydrogen cars is unlikely to ever catch34:04up catch up with34:05battery electric systems so and34:09the need for for a new power production34:12in case the entire fleet of of cars34:16or would34:19would be uh made up of hydrogen cars34:22it would be 80 nuclear power plants uh34:25instead of 4034:26to um for for a car and heavy34:29transportation34:30um if battery electric were were to be34:34used34:35so so hydrogen has34:39significant drawbacks compared to34:43compared to electricity34:46and it’s important if hydrogen is going34:49to be used on a large scale34:50in any country it’s important to34:53pinpoint34:54the areas where hydrogen could34:58become competitive like in sweden for35:02example we have a railway uh that’s35:05running uh inland35:08uh in the north of sweden where it will35:10be too expensive to35:12electrify the tracks so in in that35:16for that railway uh there there is the35:19idea that it could be run on uh35:22electricity because then uh35:25it would it would probably become a35:28competitive solution35:30there to to use hydrogen to to35:33power the railway uh and it would be35:36easier to35:38transport hydrogen to35:42to the trains there compared to35:45building the electricity grid necessary35:49to35:50to electrify that railway35:54so um in the area of of35:58hydrogen it’s at present not meaningful36:00to calculate36:01the pace of development and it will take36:04one or two decades at least until um36:09large-scale implementation of hydrogen36:11systems36:12could could be started and36:16in order to start this we need to36:17consider or governments and and36:20and companies that are going to be36:21involved in this need to consider36:23what the components will be of fully36:26functioning systems it’s not only a36:28matter of36:29hydrating cars and36:33and some hydrogen36:37fueling stations it’s36:40it’s a much more complex system that’s36:43that’s36:44that needs to be built up then than that36:48so i my conclusion here or the basis of36:52my argument36:53is that in all these situations36:56we need a system perspective on the36:58development37:00we need to understand the challenges and37:03the time frame37:04and we need to understand the challenge37:07of of the peak in oil production and the37:11potential37:11that oil may the oil production may37:15decrease37:15in the years to come uh compared to37:19the challenge of of uh37:22climate change and emissions of carbon37:24dioxide and the need to reduce37:27carbon dioxide and emissions37:30because the the solutions that we need37:33and the the37:34investment and the time of time frame37:37for37:37for activities will have to be37:41adjusted to the severity and and the37:45time frame of the challenge37:47that we need that we try to mitigate37:51and we need to determine when37:54which systems that will be necessary and37:56the components that need to be developed37:58for these systems so if we want to use38:02hydrogen systems we need to define the38:04areas38:05where they will be most competitive or38:07where they are likely to be38:09most competitive and define the areas38:12where38:14traditional power systems and battery38:17electric systems38:18will be more competitive and that can be38:22done38:22at present it’s not something that that38:24will38:26change over time because we can see38:29the the status of development and we can38:32um38:33calculate uh and determine um38:37the end with quite38:40significant uh certainty the end result38:44of um in terms of cost38:47and and time and so on uh for for the38:50different systems38:52what they can deliver deliver and what38:54needs to be built up38:56um so we need to assess39:00what what research and development is39:02needed39:04for for the different uh systems and39:06determine the time frame and39:08investment needs we need to39:11analyze the the time frame and39:13investment needs for infrastructure39:15construction39:16um and we need to39:20calculate the penetration speed39:24of the market and and how we can get um39:27users customers consumers39:30to use the new technologies and and39:33abandon39:34the use of present technologies and39:37calculate the time frame and investment39:38needs for that39:40and and i i find that39:44that very little of this uh system39:48system related uh analysis39:52has been uh going on as the39:55when when the 10-point plan has been39:58developed40:01when when40:05these calculations have been made40:08there’s a need to select the most40:10promised promising system40:12for each application and we need to look40:14at40:15what system do we do we need for for um40:20car transportation heavy transportation40:23um40:24railways etc and and what additional40:28uh components do we need to build40:32and in in the40:35in the um40:38aspect of of um car transportation it40:41seems that battery electric system40:44will remain more competitive on all40:47aspects40:48as as far as i understand it and40:51it then there’s a need for a very40:53thorough and detailed analysis40:56in order to find out if uh hydrogen41:01transportation systems or hydrogen41:03storage of41:04of energy uh is likely to become41:08more competitive in any area except41:11in for example in in the case of remote41:14railways or or41:16other other situations where it would be41:20difficult or uneconomical to41:25to run run them on41:30electricity and through the power grid41:34so this is a very brief41:39and41:42quite superficial analysis of these41:46two systems and and uh an attempt to41:49compare them41:50from a competitiveness perspective on on41:53a diff41:54a number of different um aspects41:57uh but i think and this type of analysis42:01of course needs to be done in much more42:04detail42:04in order to determine the viability and42:07and42:09to to guide decisions uh42:13in terms of what which investments need42:15to be42:16made in in development and and42:18implementation and so on42:20yes what you describe maps makes a lot42:23of sense especially from a systems42:25engineering background42:27that the plan or the42:31future we’re trying to create can only42:33be done where42:35all of the pieces of the puzzle link42:38together well42:39and right now as you said in the the way42:41at least this 10-point plan has been42:43presented42:44these different items aren’t interacting42:46with each other42:48for a bigger goal um and42:51what i was thinking i’ll bring up on my42:53screen the actual the 10-point plan just42:55to give the viewers a sort of sense of42:58this43:02so this is from um a43:06edi a um website based on sustainable43:10business who have taken the43:12um from the the government website this43:15kind of43:17text document and turned it into a43:19illustration43:20and so these 10 points which we’ve43:23touched upon43:24i guess mats would you be able to for43:26each of these points43:27i know that we’ve said the big problem43:29is that where they’re not holistically43:31linked together to a wider goal43:33but would you be able to just go through43:34each of them and give a very quick43:37uh summary of sort of good bad or maybe43:41yes yes i can um offshore43:45wind uh is of is an area43:49that needs to be expanded um43:53rapidly because because of the um the43:56need43:56to increase um power production44:00uh hydrogen is an area that44:04i think we it needs to be uh44:08there needs to be a question mark on44:10hydrogen because of the um44:14well seemingly low competitiveness and44:17and the aspect that battery electric44:20systems44:21can be used instead of hydrogen and44:25hydrogen seems to be less competitive44:28compared to44:30to battery electric solutions44:33nuclear is probably a44:38technology that uh countries need to44:41invest in even though uh i know there’s44:44a44:44in many countries there’s a lot of44:46resistance to um44:48to nuclear uh but the alternative to44:51nuclear would be44:52a much more dramatic44:56increase in wind and solar production or44:59and perhaps sea45:02uh power generated from from the sea45:06but those technologies are not45:10anywhere anywhere near maturity it’s45:13the the so45:17so i i think that it will be difficult45:20to45:21avoid um nuclear45:24as part of the solution45:27electric vehicles is clearly a necessary45:32and very competitive um alternative45:35to petrol and diesel cars and45:40it seems that electric vehicles is will45:42also be45:43the preferable and most competitive45:45solution for45:47heavy long distance transportation if we45:50get45:52or if we invest in in electric45:56road systems public transport45:59and the um in incentive to46:03to um um use more bicycles and46:07and um walk and use other46:11environmentally friendly forms of46:14transport46:15is will be necessary um46:19aviation and shipping46:22also need to be become more efficient46:27and that there is a need to46:31to develop new46:34uh environmentally friendly technologies46:39in these areas and there’s also uh46:42we already see uh some uh electric46:46uh ships and and there’s talk46:49of uh of the imminent launch of uh46:52light uh airplanes for small46:55airplanes fueled by electricity46:59public sector as well um47:04to to improve energy efficiency and and47:07so on47:08um in various areas47:11that will be necessary in order to free47:13up47:14more electricity that can be used for47:18the transportation sector47:22and that takes time um because47:25it takes time to to work with each47:28building47:29and each factory and and each47:33uh installation to find the47:36opportunities to47:37to make them more energy efficient and47:39to implement47:41the the technologies that are47:44possible to use in order to save47:48to re reduce the energy consumption47:53carbon capture is a47:57question mark again because48:03carbon capture doesn’t contribute to the48:06transformation48:07of of transport systems or the48:11transformation of other areas48:14in society it’s48:17with a declining with declining oil48:20production we will have access to less48:22oil and we will be able to emit less48:25carbon dioxide48:26anyway so i’m not sure48:30whether carbon capture uh48:35will be relevant over the next few years48:38as48:38an investment alternative and i believe48:42that48:42that carbon emissions will decline and48:45they will decline48:47once um oil production48:51uh is reduced and so on carbon capture48:55one place i’ve heard48:56is steel production and concrete48:59production49:01um produce a lot of co249:04yeah and so there’s talk and presumably49:08we will always want concrete49:09and so the idea that those industries to49:12be49:13net zero maybe they will require49:16capture just because that’s inherent in49:18their process49:19yes that is is possible absolutely49:24but the the investments need to be49:27weighed49:28again against the uh the need to expand49:32uh electric uh49:35electric mobility systems so it49:38and the investments that will will be49:41necessary49:42in e-mobility will be very large49:45um and in order to speed up49:48that um that49:51the growth of immobility49:55it is possible that that will49:58that we will need to focus less on50:01investments50:02in other areas so i’m not saying that50:05that it will not be possible and it will50:08not be50:10be uh um that it would not not be50:15desirable but it is it is possible50:18that when we have to prioritize that we50:21need to prioritize50:22investment in other areas and even if50:25steel companies and concrete companies50:27in principle50:28um may not be the ones that50:32that invest in immobility50:36there is still a need for the financial50:39resources50:40in the other areas and for on a50:44from a society perspective it makes50:49we need to look at at the which areas50:52have the are the most have the most50:55pressing needs50:56for investment and try to funnel51:00as much investment as possible to those51:03areas51:05absolutely that makes sense um51:08i mean based on the information that we51:11have51:11at present we don’t know for sure but51:15i want to to um51:17[Music]51:19to make the argument and and to to51:22initiate that type of discussion that51:24that it may be51:26necessary to weigh different uh51:29investments to war against one another51:32uh nature of course uh there’s uh51:36that’s a good and um51:39[Music]51:41that’s a good um purpose51:44and in the case of making london51:48the world’s capital for green finance51:51is also a very commendable ambition51:54of course and one that51:58that’s that i see as as very52:02important in the light of of brexit52:05and and those developments52:10great well thanks for going through that52:11matt that’s very useful for people to52:14get a sense of not just the problem of52:17not having an integrated plan but what52:19each of those52:20points points are um so the book52:24is out um 8th of december52:28do i get that right correct yes52:31which is a tuesday and you’re holding a52:33um52:34live book launch in the virtual world52:38um to um52:42to avoid the the covert challenge so i52:45encourage everyone listening to to52:47attend that52:48where you can ask matt’s questions about52:50the book and then once it’s out52:52um go and get it and read more and so52:55you can52:56understand about the the blind guardians52:59of ignorance53:00what’s the full title mats uh the blind53:03guardians of ignorance53:05kovit 19 sustainability and our53:08vulnerable future53:11a handbook for change leaders young and53:14old53:16so if you want to be a person who53:19can affect this and maybe build that53:22integrated plan53:23and not be a blind guardian but be a53:26guardian who has their their eyes open53:29um i think this would be a really great53:31book so uh53:33matt thanks for coming back again and uh53:35best of luck with the book launch53:38thank you very much joshua

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